Ukraine...the war

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by DTravel

Russia threatens West with severe response if its assets are touched
Reuters

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...984fc1cc&ei=74



I say if they are going tit-for-tat we must response with tat-for-tit!!

I will have such revenges on you both
That all the world shall- I will do such things-
What they are yet, I know not; but they shall be
The terrors of the earth!
~ King Lear Act Two, Scene 4.

Putin threatens, but if he had anything more available to cause us loss, pain and trouble he would already be doing it.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Terminator, flop-house bedroom scene applies.

[Priapus]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Actually, Russia is incapable of agile tactics to exploit an opening; her generals are thick as pigshit and her ability to transfer force and deploy rapidly is very deficient. She can deploy, but everything happens in ultra slow-mo, giving Ukraine, which has the advantage of better transport and interior lines, time to respond. It's actually notable how little Russia has achieved during these months of resource starvation in Ukrainian forces. And it's also notable that Russia is still soaking every metre she advances in the blood of Russian men, men she will miss every day for the next fifty years.

Since 2022 Russia has suffered around 350k KIA/WIA and Ukraine has suffered 500k KIA/WIA. The Ukrainian casualty figure comes the Russian MOD, but given their current brigade strength it's pretty inline with the estimate. The Russian casualty figure comes from a US estimate from the end of last year of 315k, scaled up a bit. The Russians have built up about a division east of Chasivyar, which is about an 8-1 advantage, and have re-started their offensive on that axis. The Russians fully exploited the retreat around Ochetryne (I am not even trying to spell these names right anymore) and encircled at least two brigades. Keep in mind, the Russians are advancing into defensive lines and urban areas. They have adapted their front line tactics. Ukraine's mobilization bill doesn't go into effect till next month, so it's going to be a while before they get troops to the front line. At the same time, Russia is preparing for an offensive from the North.

Originally Posted by DTravel

Russia threatens West with severe response if its assets are touched
Reuters
I say if they are going tit-for-tat we must response with tat-for-tit!!

This is seriously a dumb idea to confiscate assets.

[Priapus]

Why Did US Buy Old Soviet Aircraft from Kazakhstan?
In October Kazakhstan offered 117 old Soviet-era combat aircraft for sale by auction and it has now been reported that the US has bought 81 of them through offshore intermediaries.


For several years Kazakhstan has been gradually replacing its outdated fleet of Soviet-made combat aircraft with modern versions, such as the Russian Su-30SM multi-role aircraft and has been in discussion with Western manufacturers to source suitable combat platforms.

As part of this process, it was announced in October that the Kazakh government was offering 117 Soviet-era fighter and bomber aircraft for sale by auction. This included MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter-bombers, MiG-29 fighters, and Su-24 bombers produced in the 1970s and 1980s. The declared value for the sale was one billion tenge ($1.5 million).

The offer for sale pointed out that the aircraft were in an unusable condition, their modernization was consideredeconomically impractical, and their utility as a source for spare parts was limited.

Despite this it was reported on the Russian English language news site Reporter.RU and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Insider UA that the US had recently purchased 81 of the aircraft through offshore entities. Among the aircraft transferred under the scheme were MiG-27, MiG-29 and Su-24.

The reason for the purchase was not declared but speculation has grown that, as the aircraft types are all in service with Ukraine, it is likely they will eventually be transferred to Kyiv. The suggestion is that the the Armed Forces of Ukraine(AFU) would disassemble them for spare parts or even use the obsolete airframes as decoys at airfields.


Previously Ukraine’s Western allies had purchased or transferred a plethora of Soviet military equipment to support and supplement the weaponry already held by the AFU.

It also seems that Kazakhstan is increasing its ties with Western nations and is attempting to reduce the historic strategic and military links with Moscow, with visits to and from Astana by politicians from countries considered unfriendly to the Russian Federation.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Germany, in the autumn of 2023 and insisted that Astana “has clearly stated that it will follow the sanctions regime. [against Russia].” Tokayev also said Kazakhstan was not “anti-Russia” and valued “comprehensive cooperation with Russia, with which we share the [second] longest border in the world.”

This week, the UK Foreign Minister, David Cameron, visited Astana and concluded agreements on trade, education, environment, and mineral supplies. Cameron mentioned that Kazakhstan is surrounded by difficult neighbors – Russia, China, Afghanistan, and Iran and offered London’s support to deal with issues that arise in this difficult region.


https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31780

A few possibilities. One, as mentioned in the article we're going to give them to Ukraine to use as spare parts, decoys, or even refurbish. Ukraine probably has a lot of spare parts for these things somewhere in their country - it had a lot of Soviet industry and arms manufacturing in the good ole days. Yes, a lot of it was sold onto the, I don't want to say black market, but let's just say not-white market. The MIG-31 is a great interceptor and the MIG-29 is a great fighter. Yeah, their avionics are probably old, but the MIG-29 avionics were probably better than the US contemporaries. If you can ghetto rig some new radars into either of those planes, they're really not to be discounted. More than likely, they're for spare parts, but I can dream. The MIG-31 probably doesn't even need an upgraded radar if you use it as an interceptor.



Another possibility is that we bought them to keep them out of Russia's hands to be used for spare parts, or refurbished/upgraded. This could have been the sole reason, or just a secondary reason. Same goes for Iran. A few MIG-31's taking off from Iran can be places in a hurry, and while we can deal with them, it's just easier to buy them. Also, given the 'reported purchase price' it's actually cheaper than any air-to-air missile in our arsenal.



The purchase price leads me into my next point. I simply don't believe it. They were essentially sold for the scrap value of the metal. So, they would have to be in a really, really bad state for that price to be even remotely fair. Also, the US is a honey badger when it comes to spending taxpayer money. What I infer from this is that we leaked this number precisely because it would be about the scrap metal price of the planes to hide the fact the air frames might have a few more hours left on them. I mean, there are plenty of people who would buy these planes to restore and fly when the cost of them is less than a quality used car. I mean, G-V's are nice, but getting somewhere at Mach 2.3 is a lot nicer and, you figure $20k for the plane, call it $250k to refurbish... It's cheaper too. Probably wouldn't even cost $250k if the airframe was still good. God, I want a MIG-31 and I can't even fly... legally. If I could fly legally, it wouldn't be for long, because I just couldn't resist blasting over the country at Mach 2.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by Priapus

Since 2022 Russia has suffered around 350k KIA/WIA and Ukraine has suffered 500k KIA/WIA. The Ukrainian casualty figure comes the Russian MOD, but given their current brigade strength it's pretty inline with the estimate. The Russian casualty figure comes from a US estimate from the end of last year of 315k, scaled up a bit. The Russians have built up about a division east of Chasivyar, which is about an 8-1 advantage, and have re-started their offensive on that axis. The Russians fully exploited the retreat around Ochetryne (I am not even trying to spell these names right anymore) and encircled at least two brigades. Keep in mind, the Russians are advancing into defensive lines and urban areas. They have adapted their front line tactics. Ukraine's mobilization bill doesn't go into effect till next month, so it's going to be a while before they get troops to the front line. At the same time, Russia is preparing for an offensive from the North.

If Ukraine has sustained this level of casualties, it begs a very obvious question, does it not? Why is it that the Russians are trying to assemble tens of thousands of men to attack little towns a long way east of the Dnipro River. How is this possible when they have already killed or incapacitated more than 50% of the entire Ukrainian army? If these figures were true, Ukrainian resistance in the field would be too weak to repel any of these mass human wave attacks and Russia would have won by now. If you haven't logic-checked this Russian propaganda you appear to be accepting, I suggest you do.

I certainly agree that the Russians will do their best to mount a full scale offensive whenever the spring mud season ends, but that's because they are already on a full war footing and time is not on their side, unless Trump wins in November. The Russians are the ones who will get weaker from here, provided the USA continues to supply Ukraine.

[Rogerbh]

https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-kazakhstan/

Kazakhstan is the 81st largest trading partner of the United States, with a total of $2.5 billion in two-way trade in 2021. U.S. firms have invested tens of billions of dollars in Kazakhstan, concentrated in the oil and gas sector. Kazakhstan has made some progress in creating a favorable investment climate, although serious problems remain, including corruption and arbitrary enforcement of laws and contracts. A U.S.-Kazakhstan Bilateral Investment Treaty and a Treaty on the Avoidance of Dual Taxation have been in place since 1994 and 1996, respectively. Kazakhstan became a member of the World Trade Organization on November 30, 2015.

Regarding that purchase of old Soviet warplanes, I wonder if the US is trying to sell the Kazakhstani's weapons.